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In his 2024 presidential run, Donald Trump vowed to steer clear of expensive and frequently catastrophic foreign wars such as those in Iraq and Afghanistan. This promise was a key part of his isolationist “America first” agenda. But within months taking office, American military units carried out attacks in Yemen and Iran. Looking southward, the president warned to seize the Panama Canal. Currently, the Pentagon is getting ready for potential strikes against so-called “terrorist” narco-trafficking organizations deep inside Colombia and Mexico. Most immediate concern is a possible renewed White House effort to forcibly impose a new government on Venezuela.

Venezuela's Reaction and Escalating Strains

Nicolás Maduro, the country's socialist strongman leader, asserts that this effort has already under way. He alleges that Washington is waging a covert conflict against his nation following several deadly attacks on Venezuelan vessels in the high seas. The US president recently informed Congress that the United States is engaged in “armed conflict” with narco-trafficking groups. He claims, without providing evidence, that the targeted vessels were carrying drugs destined for the US – and that Maduro bears responsibility. He has placed a $50m bounty on Maduro’s capture.

Latin American nations are nervously watching a significant US military buildup near Venezuela, including warships, F-35 combat aircraft, an attack submarine and 2,200 marines. Such powerful assets are hardly much use for drug interdiction. However they could be used offensively, or else to assist commando operations and bombing runs. Recently, Venezuela accused Washington of an “illegal incursion” by several F-35s. The president says he is readying emergency powers to defend citizens if Venezuela comes under attack by the United States.

Analyzing the Motives For the Moves

What exactly is Trump doing? Drug smuggling is a major issue – but taking lives on a whim on the high seas, while common and difficult to prosecute, is still against international law. And anyway, the UN state the majority of illegal drugs reaching the US comes from Colombia, Peru and Ecuador, and is largely not transported through Venezuela. Trump, a former draft-dodger, likes to act the strong commander-in-chief. He is now seeking to expel Venezuelan migrants, many of whom originally fled to the US due to economic measures he himself enforced. Some analysts suggest he covets Venezuela’s vast oil, gas and mineral resources.

It’s true that the president and his former national security adviser, hoped to oust Maduro back in 2019 in an event Caracas claimed an overthrow attempt. Additionally, Maduro’s recent electoral victory was broadly condemned as fraudulent. Given a free choice, Venezuelans would likely vote out him. Furthermore, clashing political beliefs play a role, as well. Maduro, poor successor to his predecessor's Bolivarian revolution, is offensive to the president's dominant idea of a US-dominated the Americas, in which the historic policy rules again and neoliberal economics functions without restraint.

Absence of Clear Strategy

However given his inept missteps in other major international issues, the probable explanation for Trump’s actions is that, as usual, he hasn’t got a clue what he’s doing – regarding Caracas or the region overall. No strategy exists. He throws his weight about, makes impetuous decisions, stokes fear of foreigners and forms policies based on if he approves of foreign counterparts. Previously, when the Venezuelan leader in trouble, the US president blinked. Today, large-scale armed involvement in Venezuela remains unlikely. More probable is an intensified pressure campaign involving destabilization, sanctions, naval attacks, and aerial and special forces operations.

Far from undermining and marginalizing Maduro's government, the US could bring about the reverse. The president is already exploiting the crisis to seize authoritarian emergency authority and mobilize public opinion with nationalist appeals for national solidarity. The president's aggression towards other socialist Latin American nations – such as Colombia – and overconfident support for conservative populists from Argentina and El Salvador – is provoking a regional backlash, too. The majority of nations abhor the thought of a reversion to the bad old days of American interference in the hemisphere.

Regional Reaction and Diplomatic Setbacks

Trump’s effort to employ trade penalties and sanctions to strong-arm Brazil to granting amnesty to its former hard-right leader Jair Bolsonaro failed spectacularly recently. Massive protests demonstrated of Brazilian urban centers to protect what they rightly saw as an attack on Brazilian sovereignty and rule of law. Public support for Bolsonaro’s successor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, soared. Brazil is not, and never again will we be, anyone’s colony,” he declared. Lula effectively told Trump, essentially, to get lost. Later, when they met at the UN summit, Trump backed off and played nice.

The perception of a significant regression in inter-American ties increases inevitably. “His administration views Latin America mainly as a danger, associating it with narcotics trade, criminal networks and incoming migration,” a noted analyst warned recently. American policy is fundamentally negative, favoring independent moves and dominance rather than cooperation,” she said, stating: “The region is being treated less as a peer and more as a sphere of influence to be dominated according to American goals.”

Aggressive Advisers and Escalating Rhetoric

Trump’s hardline advisers are part of the issue: especially Stephen Miller, administration deputy chief of staff, and the secretary of state, a former Republican senator from Florida who is secretary of state and national security adviser. In his view, a longtime critic of socialist governments in Cuba and Nicaragua, Maduro is unfinished business. Defending the naval strikes, he stated: Seizures are ineffective. What will stop them is when you blow them up … And it’ll happen again.” Coming from the chief diplomat, this is quite a statement.

Long-term Consequences

Trump’s attempts to revive the position of Latin American neighbourhood policeman, emulating former president Theodore Roosevelt – a big stick-wielding frequent meddler – are backward-looking, risky and self-defeating. In the future, the main beneficiary will most likely be Beijing, a growingly powerful player, investor and leading member of the Brics group countries. As the US severs ties globally, the administration is making China great again.