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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch labeled a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, particularly against fast bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a ineffective weapon for a pace bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing bowling in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and robustness of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a total of 694 runs, featuring a win against England in Adelaide previously.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a moderately successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been claimed by the team setting a target.

England often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|