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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over disagreements concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no single party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.